Most Europeans Anticipate Faster Grocery Price Rises in 2026
A new survey reveals a stark reality: a majority of consumers across Europe expect grocery prices to rise more quickly in 2026, highlighting persistent cost-of-living anxieties even as broader inflation cools. The findings, from a recent ING survey of roughly 1,000 people in each of six nations, underscore how food inflation remains a primary concern for household budgets across the continent.
Survey Results: Widespread Pessimism Across Europe
The survey, conducted in Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, and Romania, shows most consumers are bracing for sharper price hikes at the supermarket:
Romania: 73% expect faster grocery price rises (most pessimistic).
Belgium: 66% hold this view.
Netherlands: 64% anticipate accelerating costs.
Germany: 57% expect prices to climb more quickly.
Poland: 49% share the concern.
Spain: Only 39% expect faster rises, making it the sole optimistic outlier, likely due to its stronger recent economic performance and easing energy costs.
Context: The Persistent Challenge of Food Inflation
This consumer pessimism persists despite headline eurozone inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target, driven largely by lower energy prices. However, food price inflation has been more volatile and stubborn. Eurostat data for 2025 showed an average EU food inflation rate of 2.8%, with spikes for items like chocolate, frozen fruit, and eggs, and rates significantly higher in Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
Key drivers behind the pressure include:
High production costs for farmers (energy, fertiliser).
Global commodity market volatility and supply chain disruptions.
Geopolitical factors stemming from conflicts like the war in Ukraine.
Economic and Behavioral Implications
These expectations are more than just sentiment; they influence real economic behavior:
Changed Shopping Habits: Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, switching to cheaper brands and cutting discretionary spending.
Lag in Confidence: Economists note that even if inflation slows, consumer expectations may take time to adjust, delaying a recovery in confidence.
Policy Responses: Some governments are considering measures like temporary VAT cuts on food to provide relief, though their long-term effectiveness is debated.
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The Outlook for 2026
The ING survey paints a clear picture: despite improving macroeconomic indicators, the cost of putting food on the table remains a top-of-mind worry for European families. As 2026 unfolds, these expectations will shape spending, savings, and overall economic sentiment, reminding policymakers that the battle against inflation is far from over in the minds of everyday consumers.
