European capitals woke on Thursday to a question that has been circulating since the early hours of Wednesday: does a weakened Donald Trump make the transatlantic relationship easier to manage, or considerably harder?
The Democratic Party’s sweeping victory in Tuesday’s US midterm elections, which handed it control of Congress, has been welcomed in some quarters as a check on a president whose decisions have repeatedly unsettled American allies. In Brussels, though, the mood is far more guarded than the celebrations in Washington might suggest.
A president with fewer options at home
The central worry among EU officials is a simple one. With his domestic agenda now facing stiff resistance on Capitol Hill, Trump may look abroad. In foreign policy, presidents enjoy far greater freedom to act without lawmakers’ approval, and he could use that room to regain the initiative and shape his legacy.
One EU diplomat put it bluntly, suggesting that a president facing a hostile Congress is more likely to behave like a “mad dog” than a lame duck. The same official described the atmosphere as realistic. Nobody in Brussels expects the difficulties currently facing the relationship to simply disappear.
Hope for Ukraine, caution about Moscow
The analysis is not uniformly gloomy. Diplomats also acknowledge that a Democratic-controlled Congress could press the White House to keep military support flowing to Ukraine. That includes critical air defence systems and ballistic missile interceptors. Lawmakers could also push for a tougher line with Moscow. One diplomat said Europeans hope the change will mean smoother deliveries of military aid to Kyiv.
Finland offers a case study in cautious optimism. Officials in Helsinki say Democrats are generally seen as more open towards Europe. They also believe the scale of the victory could make it harder for Trump to govern through executive orders, which might improve conditions for European allies.
One Finnish official working on foreign policy went further. They voiced the hope that the result could prompt a reshuffle inside the US administration, including the departure of Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. That, they suggested, might open the door to the transfer of Patriot air defence interceptors to Ukraine.
Diplomacy does not wait
Practical business is continuing in the meantime. On Thursday, a NATO-led working-level meeting in Brussels brings together representatives of the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. NATO officials are also present, among them the chief of staff to Secretary General Mark Rutte, as is Ukraine’s ambassador.
The session is a prelude to next week’s meeting in Abu Dhabi between Ukrainian, Russian and American representatives. European officials familiar with the preparations believe the prospects are limited. They still hope for some agreement on prisoner exchanges and on protecting energy infrastructure.
Europe’s wider diplomatic calendar is crowded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Madrid, where he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Latin American leaders. On the margins of the Ibero-American summit, he is expected to meet UN Secretary-General António Guterres and European Council President António Costa. European Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera is also attending the summit.
Elsewhere, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is taking part in the Visegrad Four presidential summit in Trenčín, Slovakia, for the first time. According to local media reports, Czech President Petr Pavel is expected to argue there that Europeans must have a seat at any table where peace terms are discussed. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, meanwhile, is visiting Poland.
Markets keep their nerve
Investors appear relatively unbothered, at least for now. Shares in Europe were mostly higher on Thursday after a rally on Wall Street following the vote. That reaction contrasts with the unease inside government ministries, where officials are more concerned with how Washington behaves than with how it votes.
What to watch next
Three questions will shape how this plays out. The first is how quickly the new Congress moves to assert itself on Ukraine support and defence spending. The second is whether the White House reshuffles its top security team, as some European officials quietly hope. The third is whether next week’s Abu Dhabi meeting produces anything beyond the modest humanitarian gains Europeans are counting on.
European leaders have spent months adjusting to a US president whose next move is hard to forecast. The midterms have not ended that unpredictability, but they may have changed its shape. For now, Europe is hoping for a more constrained Washington, while preparing for one that may be more restless abroad.
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