Delegations from Ukraine, Russia and the United States sat down in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for the first three-way talks on ending the war in more than nine months. A crowd of European officials is in the same city, hoping not to be shut out of whatever emerges.
The two-day session, which runs through Wednesday, is the first formal round since February. Washington has pushed for a settlement since Donald Trump returned to office. Earlier efforts produced no breakthrough, and the process was pushed aside for a long stretch by the US-Israeli war against Iran. With another winter of fighting approaching, the diplomacy has regained some urgency.
Who is in the room
The American side is led by Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Ukraine’s delegation is headed by Rustem Umerov, chief of the country’s Foreign Intelligence Service, who sat through earlier rounds. Russia has sent experienced negotiators of its own.
Moscow insists the format is strictly trilateral, with the United States acting as mediator. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Europe already has its own channels to Kyiv and Washington. Even so, representatives of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the European Union have travelled to the Emirates. Kushner and Witkoff planned to meet them separately before the main session. Umerov said the Europeans would also hold their own talks with the Ukrainian team.
Security guarantees at the centre
The agenda is built around security arrangements rather than a single headline demand. In a post on X on Monday, Kushner said the talks would address what both Russia and Ukraine fear about the postwar period. He added that a lasting settlement would eventually require direct engagement between Russia and European countries over the wider security order. Abu Dhabi, he said, should help set the stage for that. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov welcomed the idea of putting collective security at the top of the agenda.
Kyiv’s stance has not shifted. Ukrainian officials argue that an immediate ceasefire must come first, and that only a face-to-face meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin can settle territorial questions. Putin has repeatedly turned down broader ceasefire proposals and has refused to meet Zelensky.
Why Europe is nervous
Europe’s decision to send envoys reflects real anxiety. Trump floated the idea of a deal with Moscow on European security just before the talks began. Some EU officials see Washington’s proposals as too accommodating to Russia, and CNN reported that the administration has already signalled significant concessions to Moscow.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said security guarantees for Ukraine must be acceptable to Russia or they will not work. That position will be read closely in European capitals. France has said any lasting peace must take European security into account, and Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot confirmed over the weekend that European countries would take part.
Signals and scepticism
Trump told reporters on Monday that he sees a strong inclination towards ending the war and that both sides are tired of fighting. An unnamed US official told Reuters that Moscow and Kyiv have each privately shown some flexibility on a possible territorial exchange. Ukrainian media, citing sources, reported that Russia’s territorial claims are not expected to dominate this round.
Analysts are cautious. John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine now at the Atlantic Council, has said expectations should be very modest. The war is nearly five years old, and earlier talks have repeatedly stalled on the same core issues: territory, guarantees and the sequencing of any ceasefire.
What to watch next
Three questions will shape how the talks are judged:
- A European channel to Moscow. Whether the meetings in Abu Dhabi open the door to the direct Russia–Europe discussions Kushner described, or whether Russia keeps Europe at arm’s length.
- The ceasefire debate. Whether the delegations make any progress on Kyiv’s demand for a halt to fighting before wider negotiations.
- Following sessions. Whether Wednesday ends with an agreed follow-up round or with the familiar exchange of blame.
For ordinary Europeans, the stakes extend well beyond Ukraine’s borders. Any arrangement on postwar security would shape defence spending, energy policy and the shape of NATO’s eastern flank for years. Whatever happens on Wednesday, the central argument is already visible. It is about who gets to write the rules of European security, and whether Europeans will be among the authors.
